Valuing Conjectural Government Guarantees of Fnma Liabilities
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Government Guarantees Behind Banks : International
To gauge governments’ contingent liabilities behind banking systems, we employ: Sovereign ratings (SOVBD); bank’s financial strength ratings (assessing solidity without external support; BFSR); bank’s overall credit ratings (government support reduces default probabilities; BDCR). We find: 1) BDCR and SOVBD are positively correlated, much more in developing countries, where sovereign guarantees...
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Our work in the Czech Republic and in FYR Macedonia demonstrates the importance of including contingent liabilities when assessing the magnitude of the true fiscal adjustment, and when analyzing fiscal sustainability. To the extent that explicit expenditures are shifted off-budget or replaced by the issuance of guarantees, the achieved improvement in fiscal balances is overstated. For the Czech...
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The participation of private capital in public infrastructure investment projects has been sought by many governments who perceive this as a way to overcome budgetary constraints and foster economic growth. For some types of projects, this investment may require government participation in the form of project guarantees in order to reduce the risk of the private investor. As a consequence, the ...
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